David at 37Signals has written an article predicting that there will be a grassroots, utopian uprising against bad software and that companies will start rejecting it en-masse. He says "By the end of 2006, it will be written that enterprise means bulky, expensive, dated, and golf."
By my calculations, it's always meant that to everyone I've ever talked to, except those who buy it. There's nothing new there, that enterprise software tries to be all things to all people and consequently sucks at the tiniest little task, but still needs to cost millions to employ the army of sales-folks needed to convince the decision-makers otherwise (Joel on Software has a very effective article on this point.)
To suggest that somehow, across large corporations everywhere, that the people who use the software will provide effective resistance is just wishful thinking. The decisions are made without user input, way, way before the users ever even see the software. At that point, the ability to enact or sometimes even ask for change is long, long gone, because it now means personal risk for the VP that signed the check.
If the project is a horrible disaster and doesn't work at all, then maybe there's a tiny chance that the people above the check-signer might actually notice, and demand some fixes. It's very unlikely that that fix would be to throw away a $15 million investment and instead buy a $15,000 piece of software and some low cost hardware. They'll just demand the vendor fix a few things, kick back some money, or take them to more golf games.
Would I love it if enterprise software went the day of the dodo? You bet. Do I think the dynamics of how IT organizations at big companies are organized would allow that to happen without a major paradigm shift? Highly unlikely.
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